Water AetherwingTier 1
at Mercurial Heart Charity Cup
decks
13
(18.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
68
37-26-5
overall winrate
58.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.3%
avg ELO +2.8 per match
expected value
52.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1331
· median 1323
· range 1161–1508
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1241
Q3 1434
1736
23% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
31% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 38.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.0% | +3.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +6.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 44.1% | -3.8 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 4.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.2% | +14.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.2% | -5.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 53.1% | +2.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.1% | +16.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.6% | +2.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.5% | +4.9 |
| Water Fractal | 2.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.0% | -10.4 |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -2.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Chess | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Reveal the Hidden, Take Aim, Languid Toadtroll. Losers more often ran: Nimble Longbowman, Undercurrent Vantage, Snow White, Weiss Queen.
Reveal the Hidden
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Take Aim
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Languid Toadtroll
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Aetheric Reforging
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Drown in Aether
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Nimble Longbowman
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Undercurrent Vantage
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Snow White, Weiss Queen
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Staggering Strike
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Overlapping Visages
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 60 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nimble Longbowman | -0.50 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +0.50 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -0.50 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -0.50 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +0.38 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Refreshing Charge | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Drown in Aether | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mob Vantage | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Carpsong Coda | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Krustallan Archer | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Waves | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Angelic Channeling | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Judgment's Arrow | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Focus | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Astra Sight | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cometary Vantage | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Radiant Vega | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Moonpiercer | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Teardrop Diadem | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stellarion Shift | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Backstep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Recurring Aethercharge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shademist Priestess | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |